Saturday, August 9, 2025

Is the US economy getting better or worse? That depends on who you ask

The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence is up 9 points for the first quarter of 2025, with a reading of 60 marking its highest level in three years. A score of 50 or above means more positive than negative responses.

More than four in ten (44%) CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from just 20% last quarter, while 11% said economic conditions were worse, down significantly from 30% in Q4 2024. And 56% of CEOs expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 33% in Q4, with just 15% expecting conditions to worsen, down from 23%.

Increased sentiment among business leaders may go some way to reassuring consumers, especially with 73% of CEOs intending to grow (32%) or at least maintain (41%) their workforce over the next 12 months. And 71% of respondents plan to give their employees a raise of at least 3% over the year.

“The improvement in CEO Confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board. “All components of the Measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions—both overall and in their own industries. Consistent with an improved expected outlook, there was a notable increase in the share of CEOs expecting to increase investment plans and a decline in the share expecting to downsize investment plans. Still, a majority of CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months.”

Meanwhile, recent opinion from Wall Street economists suggests little risk of recession this year and advisors tend to agree.

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