If your gut told you the first half of 2025 was volatile, you weren’t wrong.
Markets dropped sharply in April, then bounced back just as fast. Trade policies changed overnight, inflation data made headlines, and investors were left sorting through noise and nuance. For those without a plan, it felt chaotic. For those with one, it was just another quarter to navigate.
So, when Goldman Sachs released their June update, we paid attention. Not because it should dictate portfolio changes, but because it offers a useful lens to reassess what matters in your financial world.
Let’s break it down.
Tariffs Made a Splash but Your Plan Should Still Be Steady
After what Goldman called Liberation Day in April, U.S. tariffs surged from 2.5 percent to nearly 15 percent. That policy shift raised costs across the economy and pushed Goldman’s GDP forecast down to 1.6 percent for the year.
“We expect year-over-year growth to slow to just 1 percent by Q4.” — Goldman Sachs, June 2025
We see this as a reminder, not a red flag. A slowdown is possible. A stall is not the base case. And if your financial strategy is already aligned with your cash needs and goals, this is not a signal to react. It is a chance to fine-tune, if needed.
Recession Odds? Not Worth Chasing
Goldman puts the odds of a U.S. recession at 35 percent. That is higher than average, but far from certain.
Here is our view. We do not try to guess when recessions will show up. Recent forecasts have been wrong far more often than right, and using them to drive portfolio moves has done more harm than good.
Instead, we help clients stay focused on what they can control, like maintaining liquidity, matching cash to near-term goals, and making thoughtful, timely updates to their plan. It is not about reacting to forecasts. It is about being ready for whatever comes next.
Inflation Is Less Threatening Than It Looks
Goldman expects core inflation to end the year around 3.5 percent, mostly due to tariffs. We see it differently.
Recent inflation data was actually encouraging. Prices for goods are falling, and once you strip out lagging shelter components, both core and headline inflation are already running below 2 percent year over year. Almost all of May’s inflation came from a few narrow categories. That is not broad-based pressure. That is noise.
This is not the start of another inflation spiral. It is the kind of story that makes headlines, not decisions.
The Fed Is Watching, Not Rushing
Despite the tariff bump, Goldman expects three rate cuts by year-end. The Fed seems content to wait and gather more data.
“We are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy…” — Fed Chair Jerome Powell, June 2025
If you are thinking about refinancing, borrowing, or deploying cash, this is not a moment to rush or to freeze. It is a moment to know your options and stay flexible. That is where we come in.
Bonds Are Quietly Back in the Picture
Goldman expects the 10-year Treasury to settle around 4 percent, down from earlier forecasts. For portfolios that rely on fixed income as a buffer, this is good news. Bonds are finally doing their job again.
If you have been disappointed by bonds over the last few years, this is your reminder. Fixed income is still a valuable tool when it is used thoughtfully and integrated with the rest of your plan.
Equities, Stay Invested, Stay Intentional
Goldman has raised their equity outlook after Q1 earnings beat expectations and market fears eased. While valuations feel full in their base case, they still see upside if momentum holds.
“We no longer expect valuation compression to fully offset earnings growth this year.” — Goldman Sachs, June 2025
Our take, price targets are interesting, but they are not the point. Resilient investors do not chase market narratives. They stay grounded in a strategy built around their needs, timelines, and opportunities. That is why we help clients design plans that do not depend on guessing what stocks will do next.
So, What Should You Do With All This?
Nothing, unless something in your life has changed.
Do your priorities still align with how your plan is built? Has anything shifted in your career, your family, or your liquidity needs?
This is not about reacting to a forecast. It is about using that information as a gut check.
If nothing has changed, you are probably in great shape. But if this latest cycle has sparked questions about how much cash to keep on hand, how to time a large gift, or when to refinance, it is worth slowing down to reassess.
When life gets more complex and the stakes rise, you do not need a prediction. You need clarity, structure, and someone who shows up prepared, with options that move you forward. That is what we are here for.
Keep looking forward.
