Can They Give Negative Returns?

Debt mutual fund risks are real. Find out how and when debt funds can give negative returns, and what investors should watch before investing.

When most investors hear the term “debt mutual fund,” they picture stability, safety, and predictable returns. After all, unlike equity funds, debt funds don’t invest in shares — so they must be risk-free, right?

Unfortunately, that’s a dangerous myth. Debt funds can generate negative returns, and history has shown multiple examples where investors lost money.

Debt Mutual Fund Risks: Can They Give Negative Returns?

In this post, we’ll break down why debt funds can go negative, the scenarios where this happens, examples from the past, and what you can do to reduce the risk.

1. Why Do Investors Think Debt Funds Are Always Safe?

• Debt funds invest in fixed-income instruments — like government securities, corporate bonds, treasury bills, and commercial papers.
• These instruments generally pay fixed interest and are considered less volatile than equities.
• Because bank FDs, PPF, and other “debt” products give predictable returns, many assume debt mutual funds work the same way.

But debt mutual funds are market-linked. The NAV changes daily based on market conditions, interest rate movements, and credit quality — which means you can lose money, at least in the short term.

2. How Debt Funds Can Give Negative Returns

Let’s go through the main risk factors that can lead to negative returns, along with examples.

a) Interest Rate Risk

Debt instruments have an inverse relationship with interest rates.

• When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
• When interest rates fall, bond prices rise.

Impact on Debt Funds:

• Long-duration funds are most sensitive to interest rate changes because they hold long-maturity bonds.
• A sudden interest rate hike by the RBI can cause an immediate drop in NAV.

Example:

• In 2013, when the RBI unexpectedly tightened liquidity to control the falling rupee, 10-year government bond yields jumped from around 7.2% to 9% within months.
• Many gilt and long-duration funds saw 1–3% negative returns in just a few weeks.

b) Credit Risk

This is the risk that the bond issuer fails to repay interest or principal. If a bond is downgraded or defaults, the fund holding it can take a significant hit.

Impact on Debt Funds:

• Credit risk funds, corporate bond funds, and some short-duration funds are more exposed.
• Downgrades can cause sudden NAV drops even if the actual default hasn’t happened yet.

Historical Example:

• IL&FS Crisis (2018) — Debt papers of IL&FS group companies were downgraded to “junk” status. Several debt funds with IL&FS exposure saw NAVs drop overnight.
• DHFL Default (2019) — Funds holding DHFL debt instruments had to mark them down, leading to sudden losses.
• Some Franklin Templeton schemes faced severe markdowns during this period.

c) Liquidity Risk

If the fund cannot sell its bonds in the market when needed (due to low demand or market stress), it may have to sell at a lower price, leading to losses.

Example:

• Franklin Templeton Debt Fund Closure (April 2020) — Six schemes were shut down because they couldn’t liquidate papers in a stressed market during COVID-19. Investors faced losses and delayed redemptions.

d) Concentration Risk

When a fund holds a large portion of assets in a single issuer or sector, any trouble there can hit the NAV hard.

Example:

• Some debt funds in 2019–20 had over 8–10% exposure to a single NBFC. When downgrades happened, the NAV impact was disproportionately large.

e) Duration Mismatch & Yield Movement

If a fund’s portfolio maturity doesn’t match the investor’s holding period, short-term fluctuations can lead to temporary losses.

Example:

• A long-duration gilt fund can post -1% returns in a single month if yields spike — even though over the long term, it may perform well.

f) Segregated Portfolios (Side-Pocketing)

When a bond in the portfolio defaults or gets downgraded to below investment grade, SEBI allows the AMC to create a “side pocket.”

• The value of this bond is removed from the main NAV — causing an immediate drop.
• If recovery happens later, investors may get some money back, but meanwhile, the NAV reflects a loss.

3. Which Categories Are More Vulnerable?

Different debt fund categories have different risk profiles. Here’s a simplified view:

4. Past Negative Return Scenarios in India

Let’s look at some real cases where debt funds delivered negative returns:

• 2013 Taper Tantrum:
  RBI’s liquidity tightening + global bond sell-off ? Gilt funds fell 2–3% in a month.
• IL&FS Default (2018):
  NAVs of some debt funds fell overnight due to rating downgrades.
• DHFL Crisis (2019):
  Write-downs hit short-duration and credit risk funds.
• Yes Bank AT1 Bond Write-off (2020):
  Funds holding AT1 bonds lost value after RBI-directed write-off during Yes Bank’s rescue.
• Franklin Templeton Closure (2020):
  Six schemes froze redemptions; investors faced losses and delays.

5. How to Reduce the Risk of Negative Returns in Debt Funds

While you can’t remove risk completely, you can manage it:

1. Match investment horizon with fund category: Never try to match your requirement with the average maturity of the fund. Always choose the fund whose average maturity is far less than your requirement. Many investors, and in fact the financial industry, wrongly preach that your requirement should be equal to the average maturity of the fund.
   • For few months: Stick to overnight funds.
   • For few months to a year – liquid funds.
   • For 3–12 months: Ultra short / low duration funds.
   • For 1–5 years: Ultra short, low duration funds and money market funds
   • Long-duration or gilt funds only if you can hold for 10+ years.
2. Check portfolio quality:
   • Look for high AAA-rated instruments. Do remember that credit rating is not CONSTANT. Ratings may change at any time if there are any adverse incidents with the bond issuing company.
   • Avoid funds chasing higher yields by taking lower-rated papers.
3. Watch concentration levels:
   • Avoid funds with >5% exposure to a single issuer.
4. Stay updated on interest rate cycles:
   • If rates are likely to rise, avoid long-duration funds.
5. Prefer transparency:
   • It is hard to find but try to invest in a fund which clearly mentioned where they invest (not what the category definition is).

6. Final Thoughts

Debt mutual funds are not bank FDs. They carry market risks — sometimes leading to negative returns. The impact depends on the category, portfolio quality, interest rate environment, and market events.

The key takeaway? Don’t invest in debt funds blindly, assuming safety just because there’s no equity. Understand the category, match it with your investment horizon, and track the underlying risks.

Debt funds are powerful tools for diversification and tax efficiency — but only if you respect the risks that come with them.

Refer to our earlier posts on Debt Mutual Funds Basics – HERE.