“We’ve seen a lot of downward pressure on inflation, which is great. One component of that is removing the gas tax, because that was supposed to increase,” she said. “We also have lower oil prices, so that also feeds into lower inflation … we’re still looking at the CPI inflation being slightly below the 2 per cent target for the next year, so that’s not really on our radar as a concern at the moment.”
Norman explains that after the resignation of Trudeau, a provincial election and a federal election, the economy is finally able to see some stability from Canadian leadership after months of political and economic uncertainty. Paired with the prediction that Trump will eventually ease his uncompromising tariff policies, Norman believes that having an established Canadian leadership could reduce the risk of a more severe, long-term recession.
“Our outlook is basically that the status quo is going to hold pretty much through the rest of this year,” she said. “We’ll continue to see the tariffs we currently have, and the CUSMA compliant goods will continue to be exempt. The trade war with other countries in the US will also continue, but these will gradually start to be resolved towards the end of this year or early next year.”
Finding a solution to Trump’s tariff dispute is a primary concern to Norman, who says that the uncertainty from unpredictable policies has halted investment from businesses and spending from consumers.
“It’s not only the tariffs themselves, it’s also the uncertainty that that causes,” she said. “Businesses don’t know whether to invest or whether to move, because everything’s just so unpredictable right now. Households also don’t know whether to make any big spending purchases.”
